Pocono Results

An excellent result for the ratings, not only picking first and second, but also seeing all top 8 predicted drivers finishing in the top 9 positions.

Race Winner: Denny Hamlin - Went on to a fairly comfortable win, looking about 8% better than his 2nd place finishing and rated team mate, Kyle Busch, as predicted.

Best Value Bet: Juan Pablo Montoya - Finished 8th after looking like a contender for the win, before brushing the wall around 3/4 distance and losing speed from that point on.

Best Value Lay: Jeff Gordon - Finished in 32nd after being involved in a last lap crash. Never looked like challenging for the win.

Best Value Longshot: Jamie McMurray - Was running strongly for most of the race, until taken out in a crash with around 40 laps to go and classified 36th.

WR = Weighted Rating
FIN = Finishing Position
DIF = Difference From Prediction
Green = Correct Prediction
Yellow = Within 3 Places of Prediction


Result of My Bets From Pocono

Back Montoya Top 3: -2 units
Back Burton Win and top 4: -2 units
Back Bowyer Win and top 4: -2 units
Lay Jeff Gordon Win: +6 units

Result: Break Even


View the complete final ratings and odds data from Pocono by clicking the thumbnail image to left.

Click here for an explanation of the system.

Next weekend's race is on Sunday from Michigan International Speedway. I'll be back with my preview of that event on Thursday.

Pocono Final Ratings

Race Winner: Denny Hamlin
Best Value Bet: Juan Pablo Montoya on Betfair at 20/1
Best Value Lay: Jeff Gordon on Betfair at 10/1
Best Value Longshot: Jamie McMurray on Bet Fred at 33/1

Denny Hamlin is a strong favourite with a significantly better Weighted Rating than 2nd ranked Kyle Busch. Both are being offered at well under their true odds though, so are not suitable to bet on, and too highly rated to bet against today. Same goes for Jimmie Johnson.

Four drivers in the top 10 are currently being offered at prices higher than their true odds, Montoya, Burton, Bowyer and Khane. A Dutch or Hutch bet combining those 4 might be a good option.

For some extra value, you might consider combining Newman, Harvick or McMurray into your Dutch/Hutch, all around 30/1 and 6-10 points over their True Odds.

At the lottery odds end of the field, Truex, Hornish and Almendinger are in the 66/1 to 150/1 range and each paying around double their True Odds.

For lay punters, after Jeff Gordon, Kurt Busch looks like the next best value lay. Logano, Edwards and Biffle also present excellent value for layers... if you are willing to take on selections in to 30/1 to 40/1 price range.

My Bets For Pocono

Back - Montoya - Top 3 - 2 Units @ $7.20
Back - Burton - Win - 1 Unit @ $23.00
Back - Burton - Top 4 - 1 Unit @ $5.75
Back - Bowyer - Win - 1 Unit @ $22.00
Back - Bowyer - Top 4 - 1 Unit @ $5.50
Lay - Jeff Gordon - Win - 6 units @ $10.00

Potential Liability: 60 Units
Potential Profit: 54.65 Units

Good Luck Punting Today!

WR = Weighted Rating
TO = True Odds
AO = Actual Odds
OR = Over Round (difference between True and Actual)

View the complete ratings data up to the time of this post by clicking the image. For a full explanation of the system please visit my FAQ page.

Pocono Saturday Practice

Saturday practice and Happy Hour was mostly incident free, with Denny Hamlin emerging as a clear favorite in the ratings.

Juan Pablo Montoya, Clint Bowyer and Jeff Burton are the only top 12 rated drivers currently being offered at better than true odds. With all three at or near the top of the time sheets today, the 18/1 - 22/1 odds on offer look generous, even before I see they are 2 - 5 points better than their rated true odds.

Also worth consideration at over the odds prices are Jamie McMurray and Kevin Harvick, who were amongst the top 5 runners in both sessions today. Ryan Newman also offers some value.

If you like long shots, think about Martin Truex, Sam Hornish or AJ Almendinger.

Best value for lay punters right now are Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon, both at 9/1, being 9 and 11 points below their true odds respectively.

Good value lays at longer odds are Joey Logano, Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards and Brad Kesolowski.

I'll post my final update and selections for Pocono tomorrow, 30 minutes before the scheduled start time, at 12:45 US/Eastern time (GMT-4.00).


WR = Weighted Rating
TO = True Odds
AO = Actual Odds
OR = Over Round (difference between True and Actual)



View the complete ratings data up to the time of this post by clicking the image. For a full explanation of the system please visit my FAQ page.

Pocono Friday Qualifying

After today's first practice and qualifying sessions we have 5 drivers with a small break over the field in the ratings; Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Clint Bowyer and Jeff Gordon.

Clint Bowyer currently represents the best value of those five, at 22/1, seven points above his true odds of 15/1, available at both Betfair and Paddy Power right now.

Other top 10 rated drivers at good value odds are Dale Earnhardt Jr. , who is 17 points better than his true odds at 38/1, and Ryan Newman 8 points above his at 28/1. Both at Betfair.

If you are looking for Lay opportunities, Joey Logano and Carl Edwards are currently being offered at 15 and 11 points below their true odds. Jimmie Johnson is also 18 points below TO, but I would personally take care betting against the 4 time champ just yet, although he qualified badly he was fastest in first practice and it's likely his rating will improve by my next update, at the conclusion of Saturday practice.

WR = Weighted Rating
TO = True Odds
AO = Actual Odds
OR = Over Round (difference between and True and Actual)




View the complete ratings data up to the time of this post by clicking the image. For a full explanation of the system please visit my FAQ page.

Pocono Preview

Pocono is an unusual track where conventional wisdom says those drivers with a talent for road course racing often excel. That would be Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, Marcos Ambrose, Jeff Gordon and Juan Pablo Montoya, most prominently.

Denny Hamlin is the winner of the last race held here, and has the impressive record of 2 poles, 3 wins and 5 top five finishes in just 8 starts, making him a very likely candidate for favourtism in the betting whatever happens over the early parts of the weekend. On top of that his team, Joe Gibbs Racing, has shown a clean pair of heels to the rest of the field since NASCAR changed the car rear wing to a spoiler around 8 weeks.

In the early market Bowyer, Harvick and Kenseth look the best value for backers, with nothing looking of interest as yet on the lay side. I suggest keeping your powder dry for now.

Next update will be after Friday's practice and qualifying sessions.


WR = Weighted Rating
TO = True Odds
AO = Actual Odds
OR = Over Round (difference between and True and Actual)



View the complete ratings data up to the time of this post by clicking the image. For a full explanation of the system please visit my FAQ page.

NASCAR Bookmakers

I don't endorse or recommend any of the below bookmakers. These are not affiliate links or paid listings, they are provided purely as helpful information. If you would like to suggest an addition to the list please let me know in the comments section below.

Betfair

Win and Top 3 market on each race plus betting on the overall championship.

Supports In-Play betting.

Laying and Backing betting exchange system rather than a traditional bookmaker.

http://sports.betfair.com/

Paddy Power

Win market on each race plus betting on the overall championship.

Each Way betting on top 4 finish at 1/4 odds.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/motor-racing/nascar

Sporting Bet

Win market on each race plus betting on the overall championship.

Each Way betting on top 4 finish at 1/4 odds.

http://www.sportingbet.com/Sports/US-Motor-Racing/270

Bet Fred

Win market on each race plus betting on the overall championship.

Each Way betting on top 4 finish at 1/4 odds.

http://www.betfred.com/

Skybet

Win market on each race plus betting on the overall championship.

Each Way betting on top 4 finish at 1/4 odds.

http://www.skybet.com/betting/nascar/

Bet365

Win, Top 5 finish and Group betting markets on each race, plus betting on the overall championship.

Each Way betting on top 4 finish at 1/4 odds.

http://www.bet365.com/

Results

Pocono - 6th June 2010

Final selections
Complete ratings and odds calculations sheet

Race Winner: Denny Hamlin (1st)
Best Value Bet: Juan Pablo Montoya (8th)
Best Value Lay: Jeff Gordon (32nd)
Best Longshot: Jamie McMurray (36th)

Betting Results:

Back Montoya Top 3: -2 units
Back Burton Win and top 4: -2 units
Back Bowyer Win and top 4: -2 units
Lay Jeff Gordon Win: +6 units

Result: Break Even

About NASCAR Odds

About Me

My name is Brad. I am an Australian who loves his motorsport, particularly NASCAR and Formula 1.

I've developed a simple yet effective system of framing a market on these events and very much enjoy the challenge of finding value bets and lays. I'm not a big punter, and I don't gamble on anything else apart from motorsport. I find betting on the races not only adds extra interest due to the potential winnings, but greatly enhances my enjoyment of following the news and trends between events.

I created this website mostly as an assistance to myself in solidifying my thoughts by publishing the markets and analysis I do, plus I would like to see more people wagering on NASCAR at the Betfair betting exchange, which is low on liquidity.

A shout out also has to go to John, from the rec.autos.sport.nascar usenet group, for inspiring me with his original rating system for making tipping competition picks.


How The Rating System Works

I rank the drivers from 1 to 20 in 10 criteria, and give 20 points for first down to 1 point for 20th in each. I then use a weighting factor for each criteria to determine a Weighted Rating for each driver.

Current Championship Rank (.25)
Last Race Result (.25)
Last Race At This Track (.25)
Best Finish At Track in Last 3 Years (.25)
Pre-Event Betting Odds (.50)
Practice 1 Speed (.25)
Qualifying Rank (.75)
Practice 2 Speed (.50)
Happy Hour Speed (1)
Pre-Race Odds (.50)

Those weighted ratings are then used to calculate the probability percentage each driver has of winning, which is converted into a True Odds figure.

See an example ratings sheet from the June 2010 Pocono race here.

The True Odds are based on a totally "fair market", with no Over Round (profit) calculated in by the bookmaker (typically 15-20%). So you can expect most of them to be above bookmaker offered odds, but it is where they differ greatly that an opportunity for astute punters arises. In basic terms, if you only ever back runners at prices above their True Odds, or only ever lay runners at below True Odds, the law of averages promises you will win over the long run.


How Often Does The System Win?

Although it isn't my primary aim, the weighted ratings have done amazingly well at picking the race winner (5 from the last 6 races at the time of writing). To date in 2010 I am averaging a 25% increase in my bank per race using the system in conjunction with Dutch and Hedge betting strategies.

Check out my Results Page to see how it has done since May 2010.


Frequently Asked Questions

When I get some they will go here. :)